The probability of a recession starting within 24 months has more than doubled this year as leading economic indicators deteriorate, the yield curve inverts and monetary policy tightens, according to a note Tuesday by Guggenheim Partners.
“The next recession will not be as severe as the last one, but it could be more prolonged than usual because policymakers at home and abroad have limited tools to fight the downturn,” the team, led by Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd, said in the note.
- Credit markets may be hit harder than usual in a downturn because of the high ratio of corporate debt and the likelihood of 'a massive fallen angel wave.'
- A severe bear stock market drop of 40-50 percent in the next recession is possible because of current high valuations.
- While a recession could begin as soon as the first half of next year, a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve could extend the current growth cycle.
Minerd’s group at Guggenheim oversees more than $200 billion.