Joel Naroff



Jan 18, 2019
The economy may have ended 2018 on a positive note, but the government shutdown is proving to be a real downer.


Jan 15, 2019
If the shutdown lasts an entire quarter, look for a GDP number that is probably in the 1% to 1.5% range, or even lower. Indeed, you cannot rule out a negative number.


Jan 11, 2019
The next FOMC meeting where a hike might occur is not until March 19-20. Unless the government shut down and the trade war seriously harm growth, I don’t see why an increase shouldn’t happen at that meeting, if the Fed really is basing its decisions on economic data.


Jan 8, 2019
Even though job openings are declining, they still are high and the inability to find workers remains the biggest concern of small business owners.


Jan 7, 2019
For me, the economy is growing above trend, which points to at least two and possibly three moves this year.


Jan 4, 2019
Wage gains are accelerating and better than expected job growth is likely to cause labor costs to rise faster.


Jan 3, 2019
Job growth may be holding up but there are growing signs that the economy is indeed slowing.


Dec 19, 2018
Faced with political pressure from the president to stop raising rates and panic on the part of investors who were seeing their massive capital gains disappear, the Fed could have punted. Instead, it decided to continue trying to win the game.

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