Mar 20, 2019
The U.S. economy is operating around trend growth. The U.S. labor market is, if not overheating, at least very warm, and inflation in the United States is in line with long-term averages.
Mar 19, 2019
The U.S. manufacturing sector has not been doing too badly overall. The overwhelming majority of developed market manufacturing weakness is down to Germany alone.
Mar 18, 2019
If the policy was supposed to change the U.S. trade position, clearly it has not been entirely successful and the economic costs of the additional tax burden have damaged equity markets.
Mar 15, 2019
A deal of some sort is already priced in for equities and the U.S.-China trade agreement would have to be spectacular to get a strong upwards reaction now.
Mar 14, 2019
Trump’s “Art of the Deal” making, including walking out of meetings like he did in Vietnam, has raised concerns in China about the wisdom of having any meeting at all.
Mar 13, 2019
U.S. labor costs have been rising faster than expected. If companies try to pass those cost increases on to consumers, then producer price inflation is the first place where that inflation will show up.
Mar 12, 2019
The United States is contemplating the prospect of another partial government shutdown later this year that would again cause damage to the people involved.
Mar 11, 2019
Financial markets are betting on a trade deal, but it would have to be something rather special to get financial markets to become really excited about the prospect now. That doesn’t seem very likely.